A victory for Donald Trump in November’s presidential election could lead to an additional 4bn tonnes of U.S. emissions by 2030 compared with Joe Biden’s plans, Carbon Brief analysis reveals.

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For context, 4GtCO2e is equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan, or the combined annual total of the world’s 140 lowest-emitting countries.

Put another way, the extra 4GtCO2e from a second Trump term would negate — twice over — all of the savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies around the world over the past five years.

If Trump secures a second term, the U.S. would also very likely miss its global climate pledge by a wide margin, with emissions only falling to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. The US’s current target under the Paris Agreement is to achieve a 50-52% reduction by 2030.

Carbon Brief’s analysis is based on an aggregation of modelling by various U.S. research groups. It highlights the significant impact of the Biden administration’s climate policies. This includes the Inflation Reduction Act — which Trump has pledged to reverse — along with several other policies.

The findings are subject to uncertainty around economic growth, fuel and technology prices, the market response to incentives and the extent to which Trump is able to roll back Biden’s policies.

The analysis might overstate the impact Trump could have on U.S. emissions, if some of Biden’s policies prove hard to unpick — or if subnational climate action accelerates.

Equally, it might understate Trump’s impact. For example, his pledge to “drill, baby, drill” is not included within the analysis and would likely raise U.S. and global emissions further through the increased extraction and burning of oil, gas and coal.

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Regardless of the precise impact, a second Trump term that successfully dismantles Biden’s climate legacy would likely end any global hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5C.

The ‘Trump effect’ on U.S. emissions

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In total, the analysis suggests that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would fall to 28% below 2005 levels by 2030 if Trump secures a second term and rolls back Biden’s policies — far short of the 50-52% target. If Biden is reelected, emissions would fall to around 43% below 2005 levels.

In the Trump scenario, annual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would be around 1GtCO2e higher in 2030 than under Biden, resulting in a cumulative addition of around 4GtCO2e by that year.

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Source: Simon Evans and Verner Viisainen, carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/